Introduction
Asteroid (276033) 2002 AJ129 is a near-Earth object (NEO that has attracted scientific attention due to its highly elongated orbit through the inner solar system and its periodic close approaches to Earth. Discovered in January 2002 by the Near Earth Asteroid Tracking (NEAT) program at Haleakala Observatory, the asteroid crosses the orbits of Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars during each revolution around the Sun.
Will Asteroid (276033) 2002 AJ129 hit Earth in 2026?
The straight, honest answer is no. This artcle tells you everything science knows about this interesting near-Earth object.
Discovery and Orbital Classification
The asteroid was first observed on 15 January 2002 and was quickly classified as an Apollo-type near-Earth asteroid, meaning its orbit crosses Earth’s orbital path while having a semi-major axis greater than 1 AU. Its highly eccentric trajectory allows it to travel from deep within the inner solar system to beyond the orbit of Mars.
Orbit and Physical Parameters
(276033) 2002 AJ129 completes one orbit around the Sun approximately every 1.61 Earth years (about 586 days). Its orbit is extremely elongated, with a perihelion distance of about 0.1167 AU and an aphelion distance of roughly 2.63 AU. This brings the asteroid closer to the Sun than Mercury and then sends it well beyond Earth’s orbit.
Based on its absolute magnitude and reflectivity, the asteroid’s estimated diameter ranges between approximately 500 meters and 1.2 kilometers, making it one of the larger known near-Earth asteroids currently under routine observation.
Orbital Characteristics
The following orbital elements are based on the asteroid’s osculating orbit and a long-term observation arc. An uncertainty parameter of zero indicates that the orbit is very well constrained by observational data.
- Epoch: 4 September 2017 (Julian Date 2458000.5)
- Uncertainty parameter: 0
- Observation arc: 14.23 years (5,199 days)
- Aphelion: 2.6254 AU
- Perihelion: 0.1167 AU
- Semi-major axis: 1.3711 AU
- Eccentricity: 0.9149
- Orbital period (sidereal): 1.61 years (586 days)
- Mean anomaly (at epoch): 288.23°
- Mean motion: 0° 36′ 50.04″ per day
- Inclination: 15.449°
- Longitude of ascending node: 138.05°
- Argument of perihelion: 211.01°
- Earth minimum orbit intersection distance (MOID): 0.0060 AU (≈ 2.3 lunar distances)
These values illustrate why 2002 AJ129 is classified as an Earth-crossing and potentially hazardous asteroid, despite having no predicted impact risk in the foreseeable future.
Close Approaches and 2026 Monitoring Window
Due to its orbital configuration, asteroid 2002 AJ129 makes periodic close approaches to Earth. One such encounter occurs on 9 February 2026, when the asteroid will pass at an approximate distance of 0.093 AU, or about 13.9 million kilometers.
Although this distance is far beyond the Moon’s orbit and poses no impact threat, the asteroid is being monitored closely during the roughly seven-day window surrounding closest approach. This period allows astronomers to refine its orbital parameters, improve long-term trajectory predictions, and gather additional observational data using ground-based telescopes and radar facilities.
Potentially Hazardous Classification
(276033) 2002 AJ129 is classified as a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA) because it is larger than 140 meters in diameter and its orbit brings it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s orbital path. This designation reflects the need for long-term monitoring rather than an immediate danger.
Current analyses from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies indicate that there is no predicted impact risk from this asteroid for at least the next 100 years based on present orbital solutions.
Scientific Significance
Asteroids such as 2002 AJ129 provide valuable insight into the early solar system and the processes that shaped the inner planets. Close approaches allow scientists to study rotation rates, surface properties, and subtle non-gravitational effects that can influence asteroid motion over long timescales.
Conclusion
Asteroid (276033) 2002 AJ129 is a well-studied near-Earth asteroid with a dramatic, highly elongated orbit. Its close but safe flyby on 9 February 2026, and the focused monitoring surrounding it, demonstrate the effectiveness of modern asteroid tracking and planetary defense systems. While it is large and classified as potentially hazardous, there is no evidence that it poses any threat to Earth in the foreseeable future.