A critical reading of Avi Loeb’s latest Medium essay regarding 3I/ATLAS and The C.I.A
When Harvard astrophysicist Avi Loeb publishes a Medium essay, it rarely passes unnoticed. His recent article blends observational astronomy, intelligence-agency procedure, and the possibility of extraterrestrial technology into a tightly framed narrative. As with much of Loeb’s recent writing, the essay avoids explicit claims while strongly implying that something about 3I/ATLAS may fall outside ordinary cometary explanations.
This article examines what is being argued, where the reasoning holds, and where speculation begins to outpace evidence.
What the essay is really about
Despite the title, the essay is not primarily an investigation into CIA behavior. Instead the CIA serves as a narrative lever while the central thesis is this:
Because 3I/ATLAS exhibits unusual features, and because intelligence agencies assess low-probability, high-impact risks, non-natural explanations should not be dismissed prematurely.
Every section of the essay supports this framing. The intelligence response is used to reinforce the idea that even unlikely scenarios merit attention.
The role of “anomalies”
Loeb lists features he considers unusual: sunward jets, tightly collimated outgassing, apparent orbital and rotational alignments, metal abundances such as nickel, and a weak dust coma.
None of these features are unprecedented. Sunward jets have been observed in other comets, collimated jets commonly arise from localized activity, nickel has recently been detected in multiple cometary comae, and weak dust production is typical of volatile-poor objects.
What matters scientifically is whether these properties fall outside statistically expected behavior once geometry and observational bias are accounted for. The essay does not provide that quantitative context, relying instead on intuitive surprise.
The CIA Glomar response
The most striking part of the essay concerns a Freedom of Information Act request and the CIA’s use of a “neither confirm nor deny” response.
This is presented as unexpected, implying that secrecy would be unnecessary if the object were truly mundane. However, Glomar responses are routine and typically protect intelligence methods, data aggregation practices, or satellite capabilities rather than signaling extraordinary subject matter.
The essay does not establish that a different response would normally be expected for astronomical objects, nor that NASA’s public conclusions and CIA classification practices should align.
Black swan logic
Loeb invokes black swan reasoning: rare events with potentially enormous consequences warrant attention even when probabilities are low. This logic explains why agencies might monitor unusual interstellar visitors.
The problem arises when vigilance is subtly conflated with plausibility. Monitoring a scenario does not increase its likelihood. The essay blurs that boundary.
Technosignatures and non-detections
The absence of detected radio signals does not conclusively rule out artificial origin. However, repeated non-detections across multiple channels do shift probability toward natural explanations.
No propulsion-consistent acceleration, structured emissions, thermal excess, or artificial spectral features have been observed. That cumulative evidentiary context is largely absent from the discussion.
Conclusion
This essay does not present evidence that 3I/ATLAS is artificial, nor does it explicitly claim so. Instead, it combines unresolved uncertainties with institutional opacity to suggest significance without demonstrating it.
Encouraging curiosity is valuable. Encouraging speculation without proportional evidentiary grounding is more problematic.
As interstellar objects become more common discoveries, scientific progress will depend not on amplifying mystery, but on rigorously answering ordinary questions. Wonder thrives best when it remains tethered to evidence.
Peer-reviewed sources and references
- Interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS: discovery and physical description (Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Letters)
- Assessing interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS with the 10.4 m Gran Telescopio Canarias (Astronomy & Astrophysics)
- Iron and nickel atoms in cometary atmospheres even far from the Sun (PubMed / peer‑review study on metals in comets)
- Geometrical model of jets in cometary comae (Icarus – peer‑reviewed journal on comet jet morphology)
