NASA SBDB Data · Astrophyzix Scientific Close‑Approach & Orbital Report
Asteroid 2026 JH2 — Post‑Solution Orbital Analysis · JPL SBDB Solution JPL 9
– (Image: Astrophyzix Orbital Viewer)
📌 Cited/Featured by: MSN News, Gemini, CTRadio, BingCopilot News
Key Takeaways of Asteroid 2026 JH2 (Updated JPL Solution) (see previous solution report)
- NASA JPL Solution: Solution JPL 9 · Epoch 2461000.5 (2025‑Nov‑21.0 TDB) · SPK‑ID 54629847 · Producer: Otto Matic
- Orbit class: Apollo Near‑Earth Object — semi‑major axis a = 2.4187 au, eccentricity e = 0.5822, inclination i ≈ 6.0°, orbital period 3.76 years (1373.9 days).
- Earth MOID: 0.000734498 au (~110,000 km), meaning the nominal orbit passes well inside the Earth–Moon system, but no impact solution is reported in current JPL risk catalogues.
- Size estimate: Absolute magnitude H = 26.352 → approximate diameter in the 10–25 m range (albedo‑dependent), consistent with a small NEO capable of airburst‑scale effects only in a hypothetical impact.
- Orbit quality: Condition code 4, based on 166 observations over a 10‑day data arc (2026‑05‑10 to 2026‑05‑20), with a normalised RMS of 0.34634 — a moderately well‑constrained, still‑refining orbit.
- Future close approach: JPL SBDB lists a notable Earth encounter on 2090‑05‑14 at a nominal distance of 0.00683 au (~1.0 million km) and relative velocity 9.10 km/s — a close but non‑impacting flyby.
- Risk context: 2026 JH2 is not a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA) — its size (H > 22) is far below the PHA threshold, and no impact solutions are listed by NASA CNEOS or JPL SBDB.
- Ignore clickbait, sensational videos and news reports claiming that “an asteroid is about to hit Earth” — that is not supported by the data. Follow the evidence, not the entertainment.
Scientific Consensus Snapshot of 2026 JH2 (JPL SBDB Solution JPL 9)
| Parameter | Status |
|---|---|
| Orbit class | Apollo NEO (a > 1 au, q < 1.017 au — Earth‑crossing) |
| Epoch | 2461000.5 TDB (2025‑Nov‑21.0) — heliocentric IAU76/J2000 ecliptic |
| Semi‑major axis (a) | 2.4186686608 au |
| Eccentricity (e) | 0.5821674593 |
| Perihelion distance (q) | 1.0105984716 au |
| Aphelion distance (Q) | 3.8267388499 au |
| Inclination (i) | 6.00745484° |
| Earth MOID | 0.000734498 au (~110,000 km) |
| Jupiter MOID | 1.20541 au |
| Absolute magnitude (H) | 26.352 (small, sub‑30 m object) |
| Condition code | 4 (moderate uncertainty; improving with new data) |
| Observations / data arc | 166 observations over 10 days (2026‑05‑10 → 2026‑05‑20) |
| Hazard level | Non‑hazardous size; no impact geometry in current solutions |
2026 JH2 Close‑Approach Overview (Earth–Moon System)
| Date/Time (TDB) | Body | Nominal distance (au) | Min–Max distance (au) | Miss distance (km) | Velocity (km/s) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2090‑05‑13 22:21 ± 4 d 01:25 | Moon | 0.00729 | 0.00686 – 0.01578 | ≈ 1,090,000 km | 8.27 |
| 2090‑05‑14 02:04 ± 3 d 18:13 | Earth | 0.00683 | 0.00539 – 0.01513 | ≈ 1,020,000 km | 9.10 |
1. Asteroid 2026 JH2
Asteroid 2026 JH2 Encounter Geometry
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Orbit class | Apollo (APO) — Earth‑crossing NEO |
| Epoch | 2461000.5 (2025‑Nov‑21.0 TDB) |
| Semi‑major axis (a) | 2.4186686608 au |
| Eccentricity (e) | 0.5821674593 |
| Perihelion distance (q) | 1.0105984716 au |
| Aphelion distance (Q) | 3.8267388499 au |
| Inclination (i) | 6.00745484° |
| Longitude of node (Ω) | 57.48124946° |
| Argument of perihelion (ω) | 185.58551688° |
| Mean anomaly (M) | 311.94301933° |
| Mean motion (n) | 0.2620230562 deg/day |
| Time of perihelion (tp) | 2461183.9074504 TDB (2026‑May‑23.407 TDB) |
| Orbital period | 1373.9249 days (3.7616 years) |
| Earth MOID | 0.000734498 au (~110,000 km) |
| Jupiter MOID | 1.20541 au |
| Tisserand parameter (TJ) | 3.254 |
Physical Characteristics of NEO 2026 JH2
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Absolute magnitude (H) | 26.352 |
| Estimated diameter range | ~10–25 m (assuming albedo 0.25–0.05) |
| Rotation period | Unknown (no published lightcurve) |
| Spectral type | Unknown (likely stony; not yet spectroscopically constrained) |
| PHA classification | No — H > 22 (below PHA size threshold) |
| Condition code | 4 (moderate; expected to improve with further astrometry) |
Official Data Source — JPL SBDB:
https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=2026%20JH2
Astrophyzix Dedicated 2026 JH2 Tools
Astrophyzix Digital Observatory Interpretation and FAQ
1. What does the very small Earth MOID tell us?
An Earth MOID of 0.000734498 au (~110,000 km) means that the nominal orbit of 2026 JH2 passes well inside the Earth–Moon system at its closest orbital intersection. This is geometrically close in astronomical terms, but it does not mean an impact is predicted. MOID describes orbital geometry, not a specific encounter at a specific time.
2. How big is 2026 JH2 really?
The size is inferred from its absolute magnitude H = 26.352. Without a measured albedo, we assume a range of typical NEO surface reflectivities (0.25–0.05), which yields an approximate diameter of ~10–25 metres. This places 2026 JH2 in the small NEO regime — capable of airburst‑class effects in a hypothetical impact, but far below regional or global hazard scales.
3. What does “Condition code 4” mean?
The condition code is a 0–9 scale used by JPL to describe orbit uncertainty, where 0 is very well constrained and 9 is highly uncertain. A value of 4 for 2026 JH2 reflects a moderately well‑defined orbit based on a 10‑day data arc and 166 observations. This is normal for a newly characterised small NEO and is expected to improve as more astrometry is collected.
4. Is there any impact risk in 2090?
No. The JPL SBDB close‑approach table lists a 2090‑05‑14 Earth encounter with a nominal distance of 0.00683 au (~1.0 million km) and a minimum distance still well above Earth’s radius. This is a non‑impacting flyby. The associated uncertainties are fully compatible with a safe passage and do not indicate any gravitational keyhole or impact corridor in current solutions.
5. Why is 2026 JH2 not a PHA?
By definition, Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) must satisfy both a size threshold (H ≤ 22, roughly ≥ 140 m) and a sufficiently small MOID. 2026 JH2 has H = 26.352, making it far smaller than the PHA size threshold. Even with its very low MOID, it is not classified as a PHA and does not appear on PHA lists.
6. What happens next?
As additional observations are obtained in future apparitions, the orbit of 2026 JH2 will be refined further, likely reducing the condition code below 4. Updated solutions will clarify its long‑term dynamical evolution and future close‑approach behaviour. Astrophyzix will publish follow‑up reports when new JPL solutions materially change the uncertainty or close‑approach context.
Track live: Astrophyzix Live Orbital Viewer
Astrophyzix Digital Observatory Risk Assessment
Astrophyzix can confirm that no space agency has reported any impact threat from 2026 JH2.
The current JPL SBDB solution (JPL 9) and associated CNEOS data show no impact solutions and only
non‑impacting close approaches, including the 2090 Earth flyby at ~1 million km.
Not a PHA.
With H = 26.352, 2026 JH2 is far below the size threshold for Potentially Hazardous Asteroids.
It is not classified as a PHA and does not appear on PHA lists.
Short‑to‑moderate arc uncertainty.
A condition code of 4 reflects a 10‑day observation arc and 166 measurements. This is normal for a
newly characterised small NEO and is expected to improve as more data are collected. It does not imply a
hidden impact risk.
Energy regime.
At an estimated ~10–25 m diameter, 2026 JH2 lies below the Chelyabinsk energy regime and far below the
Tunguska scale. Even in a hypothetical impact scenario, it would not pose a regional or global hazard.
Operational context.
The very small MOID and future close approaches are of scientific and monitoring interest, but they do not
threaten satellites or infrastructure. Orbital geometry, inclination, and altitude differ significantly from
operational satellite orbits.
Astrophyzix Digital Observatory Scientific Summary
Asteroid 2026 JH2 is a small, newly characterised Apollo‑class Near‑Earth Object with a moderately eccentric (e ≈ 0.58), low‑inclination (i ≈ 6°) orbit and a semi‑major axis of a ≈ 2.42 au. Its orbit crosses Earth’s orbital distance near perihelion and extends into the outer main‑belt region at aphelion, with a period of 3.76 years and a Tisserand parameter TJ = 3.254, consistent with a typical asteroidal NEO.
The Earth MOID of 0.000734498 au (~110,000 km) makes 2026 JH2 geometrically noteworthy, placing its nominal orbit well inside the Earth–Moon system at closest orbital intersection. However, current JPL SBDB and CNEOS solutions show no impact trajectories, and the notable 2090‑05‑14 Earth encounter remains a safe, non‑impacting flyby at ~1 million kilometres.
With an absolute magnitude of H = 26.352, 2026 JH2 is a sub‑30‑metre object, far below the size threshold for Potentially Hazardous Asteroids. Its physical scale places it beneath the Chelyabinsk energy regime, and its mass is insufficient to produce regional‑scale damage even in a hypothetical impact scenario.
The current orbit solution — condition code 4, 166 observations, 10‑day data arc, normalised RMS 0.34634 — represents a moderately well‑constrained but still refining orbit. This behaviour is entirely normal for small NEOs discovered and tracked over short intervals, and the uncertainty is expected to decrease as additional astrometry is acquired in future apparitions.
From a scientific standpoint, 2026 JH2 is valuable as a survey‑performance and orbit‑refinement benchmark: a small, faint NEO with a very low MOID and well‑documented close‑approach behaviour. Its presence in JPL SBDB, CNEOS CAD, and Horizons, and its treatment in updated solutions, provide a clear example of how modern planetary‑ defence infrastructure tracks and characterises such objects.
Overall, 2026 JH2 is a safe, well‑characterised, and scientifically routine Near‑Earth Object in current solutions. Its primary value lies in orbit refinement, survey calibration, and public education — not in hazard assessment. Astrophyzix will continue to monitor updated JPL solutions and will publish further reports if the orbital uncertainty or close‑approach context changes in a scientifically meaningful way.
Sources
- NASA/JPL Small‑Body Database — 2026 JH2 (Solution JPL 9)
- CNEOS Close‑Approach Tables
- NASA Scout Impact Monitoring
- NASA Horizons Ephemeris System