Newly Discovered NEO Asteroid 2026 SA8 Close Approach to Earth Orbital Report and Deterministic Analysis as it Passes Closer Than The Moon

NASA CAD Data · Astrophyzix Scientific Close-Approach & Orbital Report

Asteroid 2026 SA8 — Small Apollo NEO Close-Approach & Orbital Profile · JPL CAD confirmed

✅ Data source: JPL Close-Approach Data (CAD) · confirmed solution, 2-day arc

Top-down schematic. Orbit size and shape are drawn from the published elements (a, e, q, Q); the orientation of the orbit and the marked encounter point are approximate. 2026 SA8's orbit is nearly the same size as Earth's — an Apollo that happens to cross very close to home.

Apollo NEO2-Day Data Arc11 ObservationsARI 43 / 100NO IMPACT RISK — Not on Sentry

Key Takeaways of Asteroid 2026 SA8

• Close approach: predicted for 28 Sep 2026 at 06:45 TDB (timing uncertainty ± 22 minutes), confirmed in the JPL CAD record. The miss distance is 0.988 LD (≈ 379,868 km, 0.00254 au) — slightly closer than the Moon's own average distance from Earth (384,400 km), though still roughly 60 Earth radii out.
• Speed: 6.61 km/s relative to Earth (≈ 23,800 km/h), the slowest of the recent tracked passes; v∞ 6.45 km/s.
• Orbit class: Apollo NEO — a = 1.07 au, e = 0.231, i = 1.89°, orbital period ≈ 401 days (1.10 years). Its orbit is close in size to Earth's own, only about 10% longer in period.
• Earth MOID: 0.0027 au (≈ 404,000 km). This pass, at 0.00254 au, is actually a touch closer than the nominal MOID figure — with only a 2-day arc, both numbers carry some uncertainty.
• Size estimate: absolute magnitude H = 28.634, giving a diameter of about 6.7 m (range 5.0–11.1 m, albedo-dependent) — the smallest of the recent tracked objects. The size is H-derived, not measured.
• Orbit quality: the solution rests on a very short 2-day data arc with just 11 observations, so the orbital elements are provisional and should be treated as preliminary.
• Risk context: not a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (H is far above the H ≤ 22 PHA threshold), not on the Sentry watchlist, and no Scout entry.
• Keep it in proportion: a sub-lunar-distance flyby from a ~7 m object is a routine, expected detection for current sky surveys — small objects like this pass this close to Earth regularly and burn up harmlessly if they ever did enter the atmosphere.

Approach Scale

2026 SA8's flyby distance sits almost exactly at the Moon's own distance — the marker and the Moon's tick nearly overlap on this scale.

Scientific Consensus Snapshot of 2026 SA8

Parameter	Status
Orbit class	Apollo NEO (a > 1 au, q < 1.017 au — Earth-crossing)
Semi-major axis (a)	1.07 au
Eccentricity (e)	0.231
Perihelion distance (q)	0.818 au
Aphelion distance (Q)	1.31 au
Inclination (i)	1.89°
Orbital period	≈ 401 days (1.10 years)
Earth MOID	0.0027 au (≈ 404,000 km)
Tisserand parameter (TJ)	≈ 5.8 † — well above 3, firmly asteroidal
Absolute magnitude (H)	28.634 (very small object)
Estimated diameter	≈ 6.7 m (5.0–11.1 m), H-derived
Observations / data arc	11 observations over 2 days
Sentry / Scout	Not on Sentry watchlist · no Scout entry
Hazard level	Non-hazardous size; not PHA-class

† Derived by Astrophyzix from a, e and i. All other values are taken from the JPL CAD/SBDB record.

2026 SA8 Close-Approach Overview

Date/Time (TDB)	Body	Nominal distance	Min–Max distance (au)	Vrel (km/s)
2026-09-28 06:45 ± 00:22	Earth	0.00254 au 0.988 LD	0.00251 – 0.00257	6.61

Same-day company

Another small object passed later the same day (28 Sep 2026):

Object	Date/Time (TDB)	Miss distance	Velocity	Est. size	ARI
2026 SX2	2026-09-28 18:11	4.102 LD	7.69 km/s	13 m	32

1. Asteroid 2026 SA8

Small Apollo NEO on an orbit close in size to Earth's own, with a sub-lunar-distance flyby predicted for 28 September 2026 — dynamically notable for how close it comes, but non-hazardous in current solutions.

Asteroid 2026 SA8 Orbital Geometry

Parameter	Value
Orbit class	Apollo (APO) — Earth-crossing NEO
Semi-major axis (a)	1.07 au
Eccentricity (e)	0.231
Perihelion distance (q)	0.818 au
Aphelion distance (Q)	1.31 au
Inclination (i)	1.89°
Mean motion (n)	≈ 0.90 deg/day †
Orbital period	≈ 401 days (1.10 years)
Earth MOID	0.0027 au (≈ 404,000 km)
Data arc	2 days
Observations used	11

Physical Characteristics of NEO 2026 SA8

Parameter	Value
Absolute magnitude (H)	28.634
Estimated diameter	≈ 5.0–11.1 m (nominal 6.7 m, assuming albedo 0.25–0.05)
Size source	H-derived (no radar or thermal measurement)
Rotation period	Not published
Spectral type	Unknown (no published taxonomy)
PHA classification	No — below PHA-class threshold (derived)

2026 SA8 occupies an orbit that is, in size, almost a twin of Earth's — a = 1.07 au against Earth's 1.00 au, and a period of 401 days against Earth's 365. What makes it Earth-crossing rather than co-orbital is its eccentricity of 0.231, which carries it from 0.818 au at perihelion (between Venus and Earth) out to 1.31 au at aphelion (between Earth and Mars). At only about 5–11 m across, it is smaller than the 2013 Chelyabinsk impactor and would pose no meaningful hazard even in a hypothetical atmospheric entry.

Interpretation of the Predicted Approach

With just a 2-day arc and 11 observations, this is the most provisional of the recent orbit solutions in this series — the ± 22 minute timing uncertainty on the approach itself reflects that. Both the approach distance and the quoted Earth MOID should be read as preliminary until more astrometry comes in.

The passage at 0.988 LD is closer than the Moon's own orbit, which is a useful reminder of scale: even "close by astronomical standards" here means a clean miss tens of thousands of kilometres beyond any risk to Earth.

Astrophyzix Assessment:

The predicted 28 September 2026 approach is safe and non-hazardous. Its short data arc makes it a priority target for follow-up astrometry in the days around closest approach, both to firm up this pass and to characterise the orbit for future apparitions.

Astrophyzix Risk Index (ARI)

43 / 100 for 2026 SA8, matching 2026 SY2's score despite being far smaller and slower — driven mainly by its very tight approach distance.

ARI is an Astrophyzix composite index used to rank close approaches at a glance. It is not an official NASA, ESA or IAU hazard rating; the authoritative impact-risk sources are Sentry and Scout.

Astrophyzix Digital Observatory Interpretation and FAQ

1. How close will 2026 SA8 come to Earth?

On 2026-09-28, the asteroid is expected to pass at a nominal distance of 0.00254 au, about 380,000 km or 0.99 lunar distances — slightly closer than the Moon itself, but still around 60 Earth radii away and no threat of collision.

2. Why is the approach distance closer than the quoted Earth MOID?

The Earth MOID (0.0027 au) describes the closest possible separation between the two orbits as currently modelled; the approach distance (0.00254 au) is the actual predicted miss for this specific date. With only a 2-day observation arc, small differences like this between the two figures are expected and will narrow as the orbit is refined.

3. Why does a 2-day data arc matter so much here?

Two days and 11 observations is a short baseline for orbit determination. It's enough to confirm there's no impact risk, but the fine details of the orbit — and the ± 22 minute timing uncertainty on the approach — will tighten considerably with more astrometry.

4. Is 2026 SA8 a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid?

No. A PHA needs H ≤ 22 (roughly 140 m or larger) and an Earth MOID of 0.05 au or less. 2026 SA8 meets the MOID condition, but at H = 28.634 it is only about 5–11 m across, far below the PHA size threshold.

5. What happens next for 2026 SA8?

Additional observations through the 28 September approach will extend the data arc and firm up the orbit. Astrophyzix will update this profile if the JPL solution changes in a scientifically meaningful way.

Track live: Astrophyzix Live Orbital Viewer

Risk Assessment

No impact threat.

• 2026 SA8 is not on the Sentry watchlist and has no Scout entry.
• The predicted 28 September 2026 flyby is a clean miss at 0.988 LD.

Not a PHA.

• With H = 28.634, 2026 SA8 is well below the size threshold for Potentially Hazardous Asteroids.
• The Astrophyzix classifier records it as below the PHA-class threshold (derived).

Short-arc uncertainty.

• The 2-day data arc and just 11 observations make this the most provisional solution in this series of reports.
• This is normal for a small NEO found only days before a close approach and does not imply a hidden impact risk.

Energy regime.

• At an estimated 5–11 m diameter, 2026 SA8 is smaller than the 2013 Chelyabinsk impactor (≈ 18–20 m) and far below the Tunguska scale (≈ 50–60 m).
• Objects of this size mostly disintegrate high in the atmosphere and, even in a hypothetical entry, would not pose a regional hazard.

Operational context.

• The flyby passes well beyond geostationary distance and poses no threat to satellites or infrastructure.

Astrophyzix Digital Observatory Deterministic Scientific Summary

Asteroid 2026 SA8 is a small Apollo-class Near-Earth Object on a moderately eccentric (e ≈ 0.23), very low-inclination (i ≈ 1.9°) orbit with a semi-major axis of a ≈ 1.07 au — close in size to Earth's own. Its orbit ranges from q ≈ 0.82 au to Q ≈ 1.31 au, with a period of about 401 days (1.10 years) and a Tisserand parameter near 5.8, firmly consistent with an asteroidal, non-cometary orbit.

It is predicted to pass Earth on 28 September 2026 at 0.00254 au (≈ 380,000 km, 0.99 LD) at 6.61 km/s — slightly closer than the Moon's average distance — against a quoted Earth MOID of 0.0027 au. It is not on the Sentry watchlist and has no Scout entry.

With an absolute magnitude of H = 28.634, it is a very small NEO, likely around 5–11 m across, with a nominal size near 6.7 m — smaller than the 2013 Chelyabinsk fireball. Its physical scale places it far below the threshold for Potentially Hazardous Asteroids.

The current orbit rests on just 11 observations over a 2-day arc, the shortest baseline in this series, so the elements are highly provisional and will improve substantially as additional astrometry is obtained around the approach date. From a planetary-defence standpoint, 2026 SA8 is safe, non-hazardous and scientifically routine, though its short arc makes it a priority for near-term follow-up.

Sources

• NASA/JPL Small-Body Database — 2026 SA8
• CNEOS Close-Approach Tables (JPL CAD)
• CNEOS Sentry Impact Monitoring
• NASA Scout Impact Monitoring
• NASA Horizons Ephemeris System

Astrophyzix Digital Observatory · Report for 2026 SA8, generated from the observatory's JPL CAD/SBDB sync. Orbital elements are provisional (2-day arc) and may change as new observations are reported. Times are TDB unless stated.