Astrophyzix Near-Earth Object (NEO) Close Approach Report & Asteroid Profile: 192559 (1998 VO)
Written by: Astrophyzix Digital Observatory
📌 Cited by iAsk Student
Image Credit: NASA JPL SBDB
Introduction
Asteroid 192559 (1998 VO) is a well-characterised Apollo-class near-Earth object (NEO) classified as a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA). With a data arc spanning over two decades and hundreds of observations, its orbit is extremely well constrained, allowing for precise modelling of its trajectory across both past and future epochs.
The close approach on 2026-Apr-14 10:04 (TDB) represents a routine, distant flyby with no impact risk. Its PHA classification reflects orbital geometry (Earth-crossing potential) and size thresholds, not an immediate threat.
Key Takeaways
- Close approach on 2026-Apr-14 10:04 (TDB).
- Miss distance: 0.32726 AU (~127.3 LD / ~48.9 million km).
- Relative velocity: 17.60 km/s.
- Estimated diameter: ~300–700 meters.
- Condition code 0 (orbit extremely well constrained).
- No impact threat identified.
- Astrophyzix Risk Index® Notibility score: 48 (Elevated).
Scientific Consensus Snapshot
The orbit of 192559 (1998 VO) is derived from 575 observations spanning 1998-11-10 to 2018-11-13, producing a condition code of 0—the highest confidence level in orbit determination. The timing uncertainty for the 2026-Apr-14 10:04 (TDB) encounter is less than one minute, indicating negligible positional uncertainty.
Asteroid Profile
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Object | 192559 (1998 VO) |
| Classification | Apollo [NEO, PHA] |
| SPK-ID | 20192559 |
| Absolute Magnitude (H) | 20.43 |
| Estimated Diameter | ~300–700 meters |
| Condition Code | 0 (well constrained) |
| Observation Arc | 20.01 years |
| Observations Used | 575 |
| Earth MOID | 0.02732 AU (~4.09 million km) |
Orbital Characteristics Explained
The orbital solution defines the dynamical behaviour of the asteroid and explains why it is classified as an Apollo-type Earth-crosser:
- Semi-major axis (1.07486 AU): Indicates an average orbit slightly larger than Earth's, resulting in repeated orbital intersections over time.
- Eccentricity (0.2266): Produces an elliptical orbit spanning from 0.831 AU to 1.318 AU, crossing Earth's orbital path.
- Inclination (10.06°): Orbital tilt reduces collision likelihood despite orbital intersection.
- Perihelion (0.83129 AU): Confirms the asteroid passes inside Earth's orbit.
- Aphelion (1.31844 AU): Extends into the inner asteroid belt region.
- Orbital Period (~407 days): Results in periodic close approaches on slightly shifting calendar dates.
- Tisserand Parameter (5.713): Consistent with a main-belt asteroidal origin.
Close Approach Analysis (2026-Apr-14 10:04 TDB)
| Date (TDB) | Distance (AU) | Distance (LD) | Velocity (km/s) | Uncertainty |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-Apr-14 10:04 | 0.32726 | ~127.3 LD | 17.60 | < 1 minute |
At approximately 127.3 lunar distances, this encounter is far outside any planetary defence concern threshold. The combination of a large miss distance and extremely low timing uncertainty confirms that the trajectory is precisely known and stable.
Discovery and Observational History
192559 (1998 VO) was discovered on 1998-Nov-10 by the LINEAR survey at Socorro. Over the interval from 1998-11-10 to 2018-11-13, a total of 575 observations were recorded, producing a long observational arc of 7308 days (20.01 years).
This extended dataset allows high-precision orbital determination and eliminates significant long-term uncertainties, including potential impact trajectories.
Astrophyzix Risk Index® (ARI)
Notibility Score: 48 / 100 (Elevated)
The ARI score is derived from four contributing factors:
- Miss Distance: Minimal contribution due to 127.3 LD separation
- Velocity: Moderate contribution at 17.60 km/s
- Size: Significant contribution from ~300–700 m diameter
- PHA Bonus: +18 points applied
The resulting score reflects physical scale and classification rather than any real-world hazard.
ARI is a non-official educational index and does not represent impact probability.
Official Impact Risk Scales
Torino Scale: 0 — No hazard; the object will not impact Earth.
Palermo Scale: Not listed / below background level — Any theoretical impact probabilities are negligible relative to natural background risk.
Planetary Defence Relevance
Despite the safe trajectory at 2026-Apr-14 10:04 (TDB), objects like 192559 (1998 VO) are critical to planetary defence:
- Orbit validation: High-quality datasets refine gravitational models and long-term integrations.
- Survey benchmarking: Known objects validate detection efficiency of modern surveys.
- Risk modelling: PHAs serve as baseline cases for impact monitoring systems.
- Population statistics: Improves understanding of mid-sized NEO distributions.
- Mitigation studies: Objects in the 300–700 m range are directly relevant to deflection scenario modelling.
Conclusion
The close approach on 2026-Apr-14 10:04 (TDB) confirms that 192559 (1998 VO) poses no impact threat. Its orbit is among the most precisely constrained in the NEO catalogue.
Its scientific value lies in its role as a calibration object for orbital dynamics, observational systems, and planetary defence modelling frameworks.
Sources
- NASA JPL Small-Body Database – 1998 VO
- JPL Horizons Ephemeris
- NASA CNEOS Close Approach Database
- NASA Sentry Risk Table